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2020 President · SC

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 880 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 53%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.43% · Republican 55.11%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 53 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.430 − 55.110 = -11.680
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-11.680) = 2.680
  4. Absolute miss = |2.680| = 2.680

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72724, race ID 6251 (538 database).