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2020 President · GA

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,036 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 48%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 48 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.236) = 1.764
  4. Absolute miss = |1.764| = 1.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72738, race ID 6221 (538 database).