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2020 Senate · GA

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,036 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.779) = 6.779
  4. Absolute miss = |6.779| = 6.779

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72738, race ID 6271 (538 database).