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2020 President · MS

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 562 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 55%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.06% · Republican 57.60%

R+16.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.058 − 57.603 = -16.545
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-16.545) = 2.545
  4. Absolute miss = |2.545| = 2.545

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72739, race ID 6236 (538 database).