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2020 Senate · MS

Data for Progress · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 562 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 50%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.13% · Republican 54.10%

R+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 50 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.129 − 54.105 = -9.976
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-9.976) = 6.976
  4. Absolute miss = |6.976| = 6.976

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72739, race ID 6282 (538 database).