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2020 President · AZ

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 360 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 45.7%

D+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 45.7 = 4.90
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 4.90 − (0.309) = 4.591
  4. Absolute miss = |4.591| = 4.591

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72764, race ID 6214 (538 database).