2020 Senate · AZ
Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 333 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 45%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%
D+2.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 45 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (2.349) = 7.651
- Absolute miss = |7.651| = 7.651
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72764, race ID 6268 (538 database).