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2020 President · GA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 438 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53.6% · Republican 44.3%

D+9.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.6 − 44.3 = 9.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 9.30 − (0.236) = 9.064
  4. Absolute miss = |9.064| = 9.064

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72766, race ID 6221 (538 database).