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2020 President · IL

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 485 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 55.1% · Republican 43.6%

D+11.5

The certified result

Democrat 57.54% · Republican 40.55%

D+17.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.1 − 43.6 = 11.50
  2. Actual margin = 57.542 − 40.553 = 16.989
  3. Signed miss = 11.50 − (16.989) = -5.488
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.488| = 5.488

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72767, race ID 6225 (538 database).