Skip to content

2020 President · IN

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 264 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 55.2%

R+12.2

The certified result

Democrat 40.96% · Republican 57.02%

R+16.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 55.2 = -12.20
  2. Actual margin = 40.962 − 57.021 = -16.059
  3. Signed miss = -12.20 − (-16.059) = 3.859
  4. Absolute miss = |3.859| = 3.859

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72768, race ID 6226 (538 database).