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2020 Governor · NC

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 655 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 54.7% · Republican 42.2%

D+12.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.52% · Republican 47.01%

D+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.7 − 42.2 = 12.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.516 − 47.005 = 4.511
  3. Signed miss = 12.50 − (4.511) = 7.990
  4. Absolute miss = |7.990| = 7.990

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72770, race ID 7824 (538 database).