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2020 President · NJ

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 324 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 58.9% · Republican 40%

D+18.9

The certified result

Democrat 57.33% · Republican 41.40%

D+15.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.9 − 40 = 18.90
  2. Actual margin = 57.334 − 41.397 = 15.937
  3. Signed miss = 18.90 − (15.937) = 2.962
  4. Absolute miss = |2.962| = 2.962

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72771, race ID 6242 (538 database).