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2020 President · OH

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 516 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47.1% · Republican 52.3%

R+5.2

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.1 − 52.3 = -5.20
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -5.20 − (-8.032) = 2.832
  4. Absolute miss = |2.832| = 2.832

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72772, race ID 6246 (538 database).