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2020 President · VA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 467 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 56.3% · Republican 41.3%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.11% · Republican 44.00%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.3 − 41.3 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.110 − 43.996 = 10.114
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.114) = 4.886
  4. Absolute miss = |4.886| = 4.886

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72775, race ID 6256 (538 database).