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2020 Senate · VA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 283 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 60.7% · Republican 39.3%

D+21.4

The certified result

Democrat 55.99% · Republican 43.91%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60.7 − 39.3 = 21.40
  2. Actual margin = 55.992 − 43.908 = 12.084
  3. Signed miss = 21.40 − (12.084) = 9.316
  4. Absolute miss = |9.316| = 9.316

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72775, race ID 6296 (538 database).