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2020 President · CO

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 455 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 55.4% · Republican 40.7%

D+14.7

The certified result

Democrat 55.40% · Republican 41.90%

D+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.4 − 40.7 = 14.70
  2. Actual margin = 55.400 − 41.898 = 13.502
  3. Signed miss = 14.70 − (13.502) = 1.198
  4. Absolute miss = |1.198| = 1.198

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72777, race ID 6216 (538 database).