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2020 President · CT

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 367 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 64.1% · Republican 33.7%

D+30.4

The certified result

Democrat 59.26% · Republican 39.19%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 64.1 − 33.7 = 30.40
  2. Actual margin = 59.261 − 39.188 = 20.073
  3. Signed miss = 30.40 − (20.073) = 10.326
  4. Absolute miss = |10.326| = 10.326

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72778, race ID 6217 (538 database).