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2020 President · LA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 378 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 39.1% · Republican 56.6%

R+17.5

The certified result

Democrat 39.85% · Republican 58.46%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.1 − 56.6 = -17.50
  2. Actual margin = 39.851 − 58.461 = -18.610
  3. Signed miss = -17.50 − (-18.610) = 1.109
  4. Absolute miss = |1.109| = 1.109

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72780, race ID 6229 (538 database).