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2020 President · MN

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 466 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 52.7% · Republican 43.4%

D+9.3

The certified result

Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.28%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.7 − 43.4 = 9.30
  2. Actual margin = 52.395 − 45.285 = 7.110
  3. Signed miss = 9.30 − (7.110) = 2.190
  4. Absolute miss = |2.190| = 2.190

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72782, race ID 6234 (538 database).