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2020 Senate · MN

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 430 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 54.5% · Republican 45.5%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.5 − 45.5 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (5.239) = 3.762
  4. Absolute miss = |3.762| = 3.762

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72782, race ID 6281 (538 database).