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2020 President · OR

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 324 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 60.4% · Republican 37.2%

D+23.2

The certified result

Democrat 56.45% · Republican 40.37%

D+16.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60.4 − 37.2 = 23.20
  2. Actual margin = 56.453 − 40.367 = 16.086
  3. Signed miss = 23.20 − (16.086) = 7.114
  4. Absolute miss = |7.114| = 7.114

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72784, race ID 6248 (538 database).