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2020 President · SC

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 426 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 49.8%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 43.43% · Republican 55.11%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 49.8 = -0.90
  2. Actual margin = 43.430 − 55.110 = -11.680
  3. Signed miss = -0.90 − (-11.680) = 10.780
  4. Absolute miss = |10.780| = 10.780

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72785, race ID 6251 (538 database).