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2020 President · WA

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 489 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 58.9% · Republican 38.6%

D+20.3

The certified result

Democrat 57.97% · Republican 38.77%

D+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.9 − 38.6 = 20.30
  2. Actual margin = 57.970 − 38.767 = 19.203
  3. Signed miss = 20.30 − (19.203) = 1.097
  4. Absolute miss = |1.097| = 1.097

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72787, race ID 6258 (538 database).