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2020 President · national

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 2,386 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 52.8% · Republican 45.6%

D+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.8 − 45.6 = 7.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 7.20 − (4.396) = 2.804
  4. Absolute miss = |2.804| = 2.804

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72788, race ID 6210 (538 database).