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2020 President · national

Swayable · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 3,115 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51.9% · Republican 46.3%

D+5.6

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 46.67%

D+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.9 − 46.3 = 5.60
  2. Actual margin = 51.068 − 46.672 = 4.396
  3. Signed miss = 5.60 − (4.396) = 1.204
  4. Absolute miss = |1.204| = 1.204

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72789, race ID 6210 (538 database).