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2020 President · OH

Wick · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 49.4%

R+2.9

The certified result

Democrat 45.24% · Republican 53.27%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 49.4 = -2.90
  2. Actual margin = 45.239 − 53.271 = -8.032
  3. Signed miss = -2.90 − (-8.032) = 5.132
  4. Absolute miss = |5.132| = 5.132

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72797, race ID 6246 (538 database).