Skip to content

2020 President · GA

Wick · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 49.4%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 49.4 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (0.236) = -2.736
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.736| = 2.736

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72798, race ID 6221 (538 database).