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2020 President · MI

Wick · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.4% · Republican 48.1%

D+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.4 − 48.1 = 0.30
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 0.30 − (2.784) = -2.484
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.484| = 2.484

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72800, race ID 6233 (538 database).