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2020 President · WY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 367 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 66%

R+33.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.55% · Republican 69.94%

R+43.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 66 = -33.00
  2. Actual margin = 26.554 − 69.936 = -43.382
  3. Signed miss = -33.00 − (-43.382) = 10.383
  4. Absolute miss = |10.383| = 10.383

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72810, race ID 6261 (538 database).