Skip to content

2020 President · WA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 4,142 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 35%

D+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.97% · Republican 38.77%

D+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 35 = 27.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.970 − 38.767 = 19.203
  3. Signed miss = 27.00 − (19.203) = 7.797
  4. Absolute miss = |7.797| = 7.797

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72813, race ID 6258 (538 database).