Skip to content

2020 President · VT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 906 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 71% · Republican 26%

D+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 66.09% · Republican 30.67%

D+35.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 71 − 26 = 45.00
  2. Actual margin = 66.086 − 30.674 = 35.412
  3. Signed miss = 45.00 − (35.412) = 9.587
  4. Absolute miss = |9.587| = 9.587

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72814, race ID 6257 (538 database).