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2020 President · TN

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 3,342 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 54%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.45% · Republican 60.66%

R+23.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 54 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.451 − 60.660 = -23.209
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-23.209) = 14.209
  4. Absolute miss = |14.209| = 14.209

The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72818, race ID 6253 (538 database).