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2020 President · SD

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 606 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 63%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.60% · Republican 61.77%

R+26.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 63 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.605 − 61.769 = -26.164
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-26.164) = -0.836
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.836| = 0.836

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72819, race ID 6252 (538 database).