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2020 President · SC

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,485 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 56%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.43% · Republican 55.11%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 56 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.430 − 55.110 = -11.680
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-11.680) = -2.320
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.320| = 2.320

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72820, race ID 6251 (538 database).