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2020 President · ND

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 59%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.76% · Republican 65.11%

R+33.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 59 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.757 − 65.114 = -33.357
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-33.357) = 13.357
  4. Absolute miss = |13.357| = 13.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72832, race ID 6239 (538 database).