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2020 President · MD

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 3,216 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 66% · Republican 31%

D+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.36% · Republican 32.15%

D+33.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 66 − 31 = 35.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.361 − 32.150 = 33.211
  3. Signed miss = 35.00 − (33.211) = 1.790
  4. Absolute miss = |1.790| = 1.790

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72840, race ID 6231 (538 database).