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2020 President · KY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,009 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 59%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.15% · Republican 62.09%

R+25.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 59 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.152 − 62.087 = -25.935
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-25.935) = 6.935
  4. Absolute miss = |6.935| = 6.935

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72843, race ID 6228 (538 database).