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2020 President · KS

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,321 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 55%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.56% · Republican 56.21%

R+14.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 55 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.560 − 56.213 = -14.653
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-14.653) = 3.653
  4. Absolute miss = |3.653| = 3.653

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72844, race ID 6227 (538 database).