Skip to content

2020 President · DE

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 656 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 38%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.74% · Republican 39.78%

D+19.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 38 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.745 − 39.777 = 18.968
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (18.968) = 3.031
  4. Absolute miss = |3.031| = 3.031

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72852, race ID 6219 (538 database).