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2020 President · DC

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 495 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 94% · Republican 5%

D+89.0

The certified result

Democrat 92.15% · Republican 5.40%

D+86.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 94 − 5 = 89.00
  2. Actual margin = 92.150 − 5.397 = 86.753
  3. Signed miss = 89.00 − (86.753) = 2.248
  4. Absolute miss = |2.248| = 2.248

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72853, race ID 6218 (538 database).