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2020 President · CO

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 2,991 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 44%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.40% · Republican 41.90%

D+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 44 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.400 − 41.898 = 13.502
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (13.502) = -2.502
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.502| = 2.502

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72855, race ID 6216 (538 database).