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2020 President · AR

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,309 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 61%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.77% · Republican 62.40%

R+27.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 61 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.775 − 62.396 = -27.621
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-27.621) = 4.621
  4. Absolute miss = |4.621| = 4.621

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72858, race ID 6213 (538 database).