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2020 President · GA

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 1,041 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.4% · Republican 49.7%

R+4.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.4 − 49.7 = -4.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = -4.30 − (0.236) = -4.536
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.536| = 4.536

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72862, race ID 6221 (538 database).