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2020 President · SC

Øptimus Analytics · fieldwork ended 2020-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 817 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 51.4%

R+12.4

The certified result

Democrat 43.43% · Republican 55.11%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 51.4 = -12.40
  2. Actual margin = 43.430 − 55.110 = -11.680
  3. Signed miss = -12.40 − (-11.680) = -0.720
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.720| = 0.720

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72864, race ID 6251 (538 database).