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2012 Senate · NM

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.01% · Republican 45.28%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.008 − 45.278 = 5.730
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (5.730) = 4.269
  4. Absolute miss = |4.269| = 4.269

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72983, race ID 1491 (538 database).