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2012 Senate · VA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 45%

D+0.7

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 45 = 0.70
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = 0.70 − (5.905) = -5.205
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.205| = 5.205

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73057, race ID 1501 (538 database).