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2012 President · OH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 826 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 42.8%

D+5.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 42.8 = 5.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
  3. Signed miss = 5.50 − (2.979) = 2.522
  4. Absolute miss = |2.522| = 2.522

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73060, race ID 688 (538 database).