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2002 Senate · MN

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2002-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 47.9%

D+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.34% · Republican 49.53%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 47.9 = 0.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.336 − 49.529 = -2.193
  3. Signed miss = 0.20 − (-2.193) = 2.393
  4. Absolute miss = |2.393| = 2.393

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73209, race ID 1664 (538 database).