2012 Senate · NE
Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 55%
R+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.23% · Republican 57.77%
R+15.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 55 = -16.00
- Actual margin = 42.226 − 57.774 = -15.548
- Signed miss = -16.00 − (-15.548) = -0.451
- Absolute miss = |-0.451| = 0.451
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73231, race ID 1488 (538 database).