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2012 President · MN

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 1,164 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 45%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.65% · Republican 44.96%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 45 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.652 − 44.958 = 7.694
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.694) = 0.306
  4. Absolute miss = |0.306| = 0.306

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73239, race ID 676 (538 database).